Pricing European Call Currency option based on Adaptive Fuzzy Numbers with Possibilistic Mean

Abstract

In this paper we use the fuzzy estimators based on confidence intervals in order to estimate the volatility of currency exchange rate having sample data. We model the uncertainty of the characteristics such as interest rates and volatility using adaptive fuzzy numbers and replace the fuzzy currency option price and the fuzzy volatility by the possibilistic mean value. Furthermore, a numerical example is presented, and we get the expected prices which depend on given degree of confidence. Key words: Currency Option; Option Pricing; Possibilistic Mean Value; Fuzzy Volatility; G-K Model