Measles Trends Dynamic Forecasting Model Based on Grey System Theory

Feng XU, Shiqiang ZHANG


Measles is a kind of acute respiratory infectious disease, one of the most common acute respiratory diseases among children, which seriously harms children’s health with highly infectious. Its popularity within the community can be formed without universal vaccination in the densely populated areas. Therefore, the establishment of early warning mechanisms of measles to predict trends of measles, to provide scientific basis for decision making for the relevant departments to prevent and control measles, is a significant public health work. A forecast method of measles trends was given based on information mining and grey system theory. Using this method, combined with China’s actual situation, an evaluation of a measles epidemic trends gray system GM (1, 1) model was constructed. The model evaluates and predicts the trends of the incidence of measles in China well.

Key words: Grey System Theory; Dynamic prediction; Measles


Grey System Theory; Dynamic prediction; Measles


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