Measles Trends Dynamic Forecasting Model Based on Grey System Theory

Feng XU, Shiqiang ZHANG

Abstract


Measles is a kind of acute respiratory infectious disease, one of the most common acute respiratory diseases among children, which seriously harms children’s health with highly infectious. Its popularity within the community can be formed without universal vaccination in the densely populated areas. Therefore, the establishment of early warning mechanisms of measles to predict trends of measles, to provide scientific basis for decision making for the relevant departments to prevent and control measles, is a significant public health work. A forecast method of measles trends was given based on information mining and grey system theory. Using this method, combined with China’s actual situation, an evaluation of a measles epidemic trends gray system GM (1, 1) model was constructed. The model evaluates and predicts the trends of the incidence of measles in China well.

Key words: Grey System Theory; Dynamic prediction; Measles


Keywords


Grey System Theory; Dynamic prediction; Measles

References


[1] DENG, Julong (1982). Control Problems of Grey Systems. Syst & Contr Lett., 1(5), 288-294.

[2] ZHANG, Shiqiang (2007). Discussion About Non-equal-space Sequence Modelling Process. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 37(18), 50-56.

[3] ZHANG, Shiqiang (2009). Modeling Method of Grey System GM (1, 1) Model Based Information Reused and Its Application. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 39(13), 97-104.

[4] ZHANG, Shiqiang, & JIANG, Zheng (2010). Modeling Method of Logisitic Model Based Grey System. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 40(9), 144-148.

[5] Lü, Jieneng, ZHANG, Shiqiang, ZHANG, Lei, & JIANG, Zheng (2010). Grey System GM (1, 1) Model Based Information Reused and Its Application on Infectious Disease Trends Forecast. Moden Preventive Medicine, 37(14), 2601-2603.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3968/j.mse.1913035X20120604.ZRXZ2

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