Between-Subject and Within-Subject Model Mixtures for Classifying HIV Treatment Response

Cyprien Mbogning, Kevin Bleakley, Marc Lavielle


We present a method for using longitudinal data  to classify individuals into clinically-relevant population subgroups. This is achieved by treating ``subgroup'' as a categorical covariate whose value is unknown for each individual, and predicting its value using mixtures of models that represent ``typical'' longitudinal data from each subgroup.  Under a nonlinear mixed effects model framework, two types of model mixtures are presented, both of which have their advantages. Following illustrative simulations, longitudinal viral load data for HIV-positive patients is used to predict whether they are responding -- completely, partially or not at all -- to a new drug treatment.

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