Mathematical Analysis on the Data of Security Situation in Pakistan 2009-2013

Zichao JIA

Abstract


In 2009, Pakistan army launched two armed operations to clean up the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan in Federally Administered Tribal Areas and North West Frontier Province (In 2010, Pakistan parliament approved a resolution: the North West Frontier Province officially changed its name to the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province.). At the same time, the security situation in Pakistan began to worsen rapidly. Although the Pakistan army gradually achieved results by military offensive, but did not significantly improve the security situation in Pakistan. Because its strength was much weaker than Pakistan army, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan didn’t wish to make head-on confrontation with Pakistan army. Thus the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and Pakistan army both observably reduced their losses. But the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan transferred its targets of retaliation from Pakistan army to Pakistan civilian, resulting in a substantial increase in Pakistan civilian casualties. So, Pakistan counter-terrorism objectives should focus on the protection of civilians, preventing Pakistan from the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan hitting civilian targets. If Pakistan could maintain the social stability, it will have more possibilities to win final victory in the war on terror.

Keywords


Pakistan; Security situation; Quantitative analysis

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3968%2F5101

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