Multi-Level Recursive Method of Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecast Based on PGAGO GM (1, 1) Model

Xinping XIAO, Rongjiao ZHENG


The prediction of short-term traffic flow has become one of the core researched content of ITS, and plays a key role in traffic management and control. Considering the concept of time varying parameters and the volatility of traffic flow data, multi-level recursive method based on PGAGO(Generalized Accumulated Generating Operation) GM (1,1) is adopted in this paper to improve the accuracy of the prediction and make the prediction model more tally with the actual situation. The forecast step is divided into two parts: the prediction of model parameters and traffic flow forecast based on the predicted values of the parameters. Results of example show that the combination of the two kinds of methods can not only improve the accuracy of the prediction, but also fit the situation that there are singular points in the parameter sequences. The introduction of PGAGO GM (1,1) model makes the model have more extensive applicability and practical meaning.
Key words: Short-term traffic flow; Multi-level recursive method; PGAGO GM (1, 1); Grey prediction


Short-term traffic flow; Multi-level recursive method; PGAGO GM (1, 1); Grey prediction



  • There are currently no refbacks.

Copyright (c)

Share us to:   


  • How to do online submission to another Journal?
  • If you have already registered in Journal A, then how can you submit another article to Journal B? It takes two steps to make it happen:

1. Register yourself in Journal B as an Author

  • Find the journal you want to submit to in CATEGORIES, click on “VIEW JOURNAL”, “Online Submissions”, “GO TO LOGIN” and “Edit My Profile”. Check “Author” on the “Edit Profile” page, then “Save”.

2. Submission

  • Go to “User Home”, and click on “Author” under the name of Journal B. You may start a New Submission by clicking on “CLICK HERE”.

We only use three mailboxes as follows to deal with issues about paper acceptance, payment and submission of electronic versions of our journals to databases:;;

 Articles published in Management Science and Engineering are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY).


Address:1055 Rue Lucien-L'Allier, Unit #772, Montreal, QC H3G 3C4, Canada.

Telephone: 1-514-558 6138
Http:// Http://

Copyright © 2010 Canadian Research & Development Centre of Sciences and Cultures