Research on the Scenarios and Scenario Evolution of Unconventional Emergency Management

Zhiying ZHANG, Hao SHI, Meng ZHI, Shiming LI


These years, unconventional emergencies are happening frequently, and have affected the country and the normal life of the people. Studies of unconventional emergency have become hot topics in international research. Unconventional emergency has the following features, such as high uncertainty, time pressing and serious result. Especially, high uncertainty certainly leads to the result that the decision-making main body will face various concrete conditions in the decision management of unconventional emergency, which requests us to use the contextual model to make decision and manage it effectively when the emergency occurs. This text has an analysis of scenarios and scenario evolution of unconventionality emergency, which lays a theoretic foundation for a further analyzing the type of “context- correspondence” of the decision and management in unconventionality emergency.



Unconventional emergency; Decision-making management; The scenarios; Scenario evolution

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