Canadian Social Science
Spatial-temporal Dynamics of Urban Expansion and Land Cover Transformation in Uyo Capital City, Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria
Abstract
This study examined the spatial-temporal dynamics of urban expansion in Uyo Capital City, Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. Landsat satellite imageries from 1986, 2005, and 2024 with 30-meter resolution were analyzed using supervised and unsupervised classification techniques in ERDAS Imagine 10.5. The research employed Remote Sensing and GIS-based spatial analysis to assess land use and land cover (LULC) transformations, urban growth patterns, and environmental impacts. The results revealed notable LULC transitions during the study period. Forest cover declined from 31.05% in 1986 to 16.43% in 2024, while built-up areas expanded from 23.44% to 44.80%, signifying rapid urbanization and infrastructure development. Agricultural land increased slightly by 2005 but later decreased to 22.83% in 2024, indicating urban encroachment. Water bodies steadily declined, highlighting potential hydrological stress. Between 1986 and 2024, forest and farmland decreased by 4,923.6 and 1,525.4 hectares respectively, while built-up areas increased by 7,192.74 hectares. Urban growth showed a concentric pattern outward from Ibom Plaza, influenced largely by road infrastructure. NDVI analysis showed vegetation degradation, especially between 2005 and 2024, attributed to economic changes. Population and economic growth were identified as the primary drivers of urban expansion, followed by infrastructure, housing demand, and policy influences. Farmland loss and land use transformation emerged as the most critical consequence, along with livelihood disruption, environmental degradation, and economic impact. Projections using the MOLLUSC model in QGIS indicate a 79% rise in built-up areas by 2050. The study recommends sustainable urban planning, land use regulation, reforestation, and predictive modeling to mitigate ecological damage and enhance urban resilience in Uyo.
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3968/13837
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